Iran Reaching the Boiling Point
Dec 28 2009
“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable.” – John F Kennedy
Escalation on a Holiday
As the American press continues its coverage of the attempted terrorist attack on the Detroit bound airliner on Christmas day, which is something we should certainly be concerned about given the connections to Yemen and the increasing terrorist activity springing from that war, Iran has reached a historical point and is suffering tremendous upheaval.
Two blogs are covering the ongoing violence extremely well. Juan Cole is providing excellent insight into the happenings and ramifications of the uprisings in his blog, which can be found here. Additionally, you can find more details about the clashes from Andrew Sullivan’s blog The Daily Dish.
Sunday marked the escalation of the popular unrest that has been on the upswing since the disputed elections in the summer. Juan Cole points out that the significance of the newest round of violence is in the extent of the demonstrations outside of Tehran:
Another remarkable dimension of Sunday’s events was the sheer number of cities where significant rallies and clashes occurred. Some of those allegedly killed are said to have fallen in Tabriz, a northwestern metropolis near Turkey. Even conservative cities such as Isfahan and Mashhad joined in. Shiraz, Ardabil, the list goes on. The attempt of some analysts to paint the disturbances as a shi-shi North Tehran thing has clearly foundered.
The most ominous sign of all for the regime is the reports of security men refusing orders to fire into the crowd.
Dissent and Fascism
One of the leaders of the opposition party is Mohammad Khatami, who gave a speech on Saturday condemning the Ayatollahs and President Ahmadinejad. The speech was broken up by the arrival of masked men at the service of the government. If you want to see what true fascism looks like, here is the video:
When Sunday came around, which was a holiday for Muslims called Ashura, the protests exploded, and the government forces used brutal and deadly force to try and shut it down. From the New York Times:
The decision by the authorities to use deadly force on the Ashura holiday infuriated many Iranians, and some said the violence appeared to galvanize more traditional religious people who have not been part of the protests so far. Historically, Iranian rulers have honored Ashura’s prohibition of violence, even during wartime … Protests and clashes also broke out in the cities of Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Arak, Tabriz, Najafabad, Babol, Ardebil and Orumieh, opposition Web sites said.
One of the more significant victims of the bloodletting was the nephew of the defeated opposition candidate from last summer’s election, Ali Mousavi. Mousavi’s body was removed by the Iranian junta forces to avoid any type of martyrdom/burial demonstrations. With varying casualty counts coming from both sides, it is hard to tell how deep the government crackdown has gone. But one thing is clear; the violence is not stopping and the pace of the uprising is increasing. Riots and attacks on banks and other institutions continued into Monday. Many more deaths are in Iran’s future before this either calms down or a new revolution takes place.
Moving Forward
As horrible as these scenes are, it is impossible to know what is really going on inside Iran. Is the government’s grip on power fading or are we seeing the end of a revolt that started last year? Only time will tell how it will work out, but evidence is pointing towards this episode being the start of an increased effort to change the fundamental governing structure in Iran. Some commentors are calling the events of Ashura the start of an Iranian Intifada (resistance):
This is a battle that Khamenei will find extremely difficult to win. In fact, if developments continue in their current form, they can result in significant changes to the structure of his regime, or more drastically, lead to its total demise.
His decision to allow the Basij to mount an attack on mourners at Ayatollah Montazeri’s funeral was one factor leading to the spread of opposition in rural areas, faster and more efficiently than any campaign the reformist camp could have orchestrated. Yes, members of the opposition tried to take advantage of the mayhem, but also many genuine mourners had come to pay homage to a Grand Ayatollah. To Ayatollah Khamenei’s forces, they were all the same. To allow attacks against the residents of a holy city where the seeds of the 1979 revolution were planted was not just dead wrong from a religious perspective, it was politically counterproductive as well.
The part in bold and italics (emphasis mine) may be a bit too optimistic. Unfortunately, the power is still not really on the peoples’ side.
Discussion
Posts are not held for moderation so your comment will appear immediately, but may be modified if it is inappropriate.
We, as a nation and as a military, must consult as many independent sources of information as possible in our relationship with Iran. Watching and encouraging a positive course can result in gains for all concerned but getting involved in internal disputes of other nations are not necessarily in the best interest of the United States. There is no doubt that America would prevail in any conflict with Iran but there would still be costs in blood and treasure. Also, if past is prologue, the vast majority of death, destruction and dislocation would be borne on by civilians caught in combat zones.
By way of disclaimer I must state that I am a student in the Command and General Staff College (class09B), Ft Leavenworth, KS.