Battle of the Bilge

Good News From Pakistan

Multiple reports coming out of Pakistan that Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Afghan Taliban’s second in command and military leader, was captured on or about February 6th. Baradar was Afghanistan’s deputy defense minister when the Taliban controlled the country, as reported by CNN today. His capture, although it preceded the current offensive in Helmand province, is a welcome and potentially crucial event in the fight against the Taliban. And the announcement of his arrest comes on the same day that Marines seized the police headquarters of Marjuh, a Taliban stronghold in Afghanistan. The second in command to Mullah Omar and associate of Osama Bin Laden may have some very useful information to share.

A Major Catch

From MSNBC:

Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the No. 2 behind Afghan Taliban founder Mullah Mohammad Omar and a close associate of Osama bin Laden, was captured in the southern Pakistani port city of Karachi, two Pakistani intelligence officers and a senior U.S. official said. They spoke on condition of anonymity.

One Pakistani officer said Baradar was arrested 10 days ago with the assistance of the United States and “was talking” to his interrogators.

Baradar is the most senior Afghan Taliban leader arrested since the beginning of the Afghan war in 2001. His arrest is seen as victory against insurgents as U.S. troops push into their heartland in southern Afghanistan.

Taliban Denial

Just as the Taliban are denying that Operation Mushtarak is having any success on the ground in Afghanistan, they are denying that Baradar has been captured:

A Taliban spokesman in Afghanistan told The Associated Press that Baradar was still free, though he did not provide any evidence.

“We totally deny this rumor. He has not been arrested,” Zabiullah Mujahid told the AP by telephone. He said the report was Western propaganda aimed at undercutting the Taliban fighting against an offensive in the southern Afghan town of Marjah, a Taliban haven.

“The Taliban are having success with our jihad. It is to try to demoralize the Taliban who are on jihad in Marjah and all of Afghanistan,” he said.

Why Now?

The operation to seize Baradar in Karachi was a joint CIA and Pakistani effort, which may signal an increase in cooperation between the two groups, who have had a history of friction over operations on Pakistani soil. CNN is already calling it a possible turning point in the war. But some analysts are questioning the timing of the announcement, and what the effects will be on future endeavors. From Time Magazine’s Tim McGirk and Omar Waraich in Islamabad:

Some Taliban contacts suggest that Pakistan may have had no option but to cooperate this time, since the CIA may have tracked down Baradar in Karachi on its own and pressured Pakistani spy agency the Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to help pick him up. A senior Pakistani official told TIME that the CIA “pinpointed the general area” and that Pakistani intelligence on the ground made the arrest in the night between Feb. 10 and 11. Baradar was arrested in the slum town of Baldia, just outside Karachi, which is teeming with migrant Afghans and Pashtuns. The Pakistani official insisted that “this shows that Washington and Islamabad’s priorities are starting to match up.” U.S. officials have complained that past efforts to tip off the ISI to the locations of Taliban commanders yielded no action. Until Baradar was seized, no significant Taliban fighter had been arrested in two years in Pakistan. “All of the major Taliban commanders are in Pakistan,” a source close to the Taliban told TIME — an allegation that Islamabad loudly and persistently denies.

Regardless of the way this capture came about, it is undoubtedly a good sign, along with the success of Operation Mushtarak in its opening stages. We send our hopes and prayers to our troops and allies in this endeavor.

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“Mad is the man who is forever gritting his teeth against that granite block, complete and changeless, of the past” – Antoine de Saint-Exupery

Anniversary Boasting

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told his cabinet yesterday that the upcoming 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution will “deliver a harsh blow to the “global arrogance”".

The Press TV article, which is a semi-official Iranian news outlet, stated:

“The Islamic Revolution opened a window to liberty for the human race, which was trapped in the dead ends of materialism,” Ahmadinejad said during a cabinet meeting on Sunday.

“If the Islamic Revolution had not occurred, liberalism and Marxism would have crushed all human dignity in their power-seeking and money-grubbing claws. Nothing would have remained of human and spiritual principles,” he added.

Vague Threats, Hatred

While these threats are usually precursors to new missile tests, enrichment milestones or just general rhetoric, the language carries with it a sort of apocalyptic ring to it. As Ahmadinejad is a firm believer of the return of the Muslim savior, the 12th Mahdi, incredibly stupid actions such as striking out at neighboring states or carrying out a nuclear test can not be out of the question.

With the nation in the midst of a popular uprising since last summer’s disputed presidential election, this is in all likelihood just an attempt to divert attention away from the problems at home. Using the veiled references to Israel and the United States in his ‘power-seeking and money-grubbing claws’, the rhetoric could not be more clear to the Iranian people. He is stating that outside forces, not ruinous internal policies, has led to the troubles they are now experiencing. There is nothing new in this claim, and February 11th should pass with heated demonstrations and celebrations in Tehran.

But, vague messages like this should give Israel and the world pause. If he is insane enough to launch a pre-emptive strike against Israel or other neighbors, especially with nuclear weapons that our intelligence says Iran does not have the capability of producing yet, the world will be in for some dark days ahead. What’s worse is the possibility that Israel may take the threat as a justification to launch an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities and launch sites, sparking a regional war.

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“From a pound of talk, an ounce of understanding” - Yemeni Proverb

Security Failure and Luck

Following the Christmas day attempt by Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab to take down Delta Air flight 253 on approach to Detroit, the Obama administration has been meeting with top security and intelligence members to figure out what went wrong in the process. Abdulmutallab, a Nigerian citizen who received bomb making material and training in Yemen, was unsuccessful in what would have been a disastrous act of terror when the powder/liquid mixture he was carrying in his underpants failed to ignite. A Christmas miracle, to be sure, but a complete breakdown in screening procedures and common sense. The flight originated in Amsterdam and Abdulmutallab carried no luggage and bought a one way ticket in cash. President Obama said that the U.S. “Failed to connect the dots” and that “We dodged a bullet but just barely. It was averted by brave individuals, not because the system worked and that is not acceptable.” The incident, in addition to increasing airline precautions and re-sparking the debate over full body scans and profiling, has also caused the world to take a close look at Yemen, where Al-Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula reportedly provided the training for the mission and are planning more attacks. Nearly a decade after the attack on the USS Cole which took the lives of 17 U.S. sailors, a look at the current situation in Yemen shows a deeply troubled nation and one that has the potential to become the next major focus in the war on terror.

Modern Yemen’s Violent History

Although it is one of the poorest countries in the world, Yemen is in an extremely important geographical location when it comes to shipping lanes and oil exports.



The nation we know of as Yemen has only existed in its current state since 1990, when North Yemen, which had been ruled by the Ottoman Empire until 1918 and became a republic in 1962, formally merged with South Yemen, which had until 1967 been occupied by Great Britain. North Yemen President Ali Abdullah Saleh became president of the nation and remains in power today, following two democratic elections. The unification process has not been a peaceful one, however. The nation fought its first civil war in 1994 between the northern and southern factions, with the south receiving significant support from Saudi Arabia. The south seceded from the country and formed the Democratic Republic of Yemen, but failed to gain international recognition and the fighting dissipated.

Yemen’s Battle with Militants

Internal relations were shaky until 2004 when the second civil war broke out. This time, Yemeni government forces were fighting a minority Shiite rebel movement called the Houthis, named after their leader Hussein Al Houthi, in northern Yemen. The war started when the government attempted to arrest Al Houthi, a leader of the Shiite sect (actually he is a member of an offshoot of the Shiite sect called Zaidi). This battle continues to rage today, with the Houthis dug in to mountain positions and occasionally striking out against the government. On top of the rebel fighting, a southern secessionist movement has been a constant problem for the government, although the issue has died down some recently due to the northern war. During this time, Al-Qaeda has supported the Houthis and sent hundreds, if not thousands, of their militants into the region. With the nation on the verge of collapse (unemployment is over 40% and popular support for the central government is eroding), the government of Ali Abdullah Saleh is finding it increasingly difficult to fight an insurgency and maintain order. This has led to several nations getting involved through various channels, including military action. This threatens to turn an internal war into a regional one.

Proxy War?

Saudi Arabia has been the nation most directly affected by the second Yemeni civil war. In August of 2009, Muhammad bin Nayef, a member of the Saudi royal family and ironically the country’s top counter-terrorism official, was injured in a suicide bombing attributed to a member of the Houthi movement. On November 3rd, Houthi rebels briefly captured two villages in Saudi territory. The Saudi response has been strong, with numerous air strikes and ground operations taking aim at the Houthis in support of the central government and out of fear of further incursions or attacks. The Saudi attacks have been starkly criticized by Iran, whose leaders have spoken out feverishly against the Saudi involvement. Iran has been accused of providing tactical and military assistance to the Houthis, raising the tensions across the region. With a growing U.S. involvement in the war, these tensions will only continue to rise. Iran’s objection to Saudi actions are based on their disgust of Muslims spilling the blood of other Muslims, in an obvious attempt to make Saudi Arabia’s influence in the Arab world reduced as Iran continues in its efforts to become the regional superpower.

The majority Sunni Saudi Arabia is in a difficult position. They face internal strife from elements of Al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups that are opposed to the royal family’s grip on power, and have seen in the past decade a rise in Iranian influence in the region, from Shiite majority Iraq and Iran’s sponsorship of Hizbollah in Syria and Lebanon. A Shiite state to its south would not bode well for the Kingdom.

American Military Actions

On December 17th and again on the 24th, cruise missiles struck Al-Qaeda bases in rebel provinces and caused considerable loss of life to the militants (as well as civilians, according to Yemeni sources). Admiral Mike Mullen praised the strikes but did not say that the U.S. had any active role in the operation. After the Christmas day attempted terrorist attack, President Obama stated that “our nation is at war against a far-reaching network of violence and hatred”, and that Al Qaeda in Yemen “will be held to account”. This will mean more support for the Yemeni government in the form of more than doubling the amount of aid sent to the nation to use to fight terror (a figure that could run as high as $150 million), continued drone air attacks, deeper intelligence cooperation and special forces operations. The New York Times ran a story on December 27th detailing America’s expansion of the war on terror to Yemen:

A year ago, the Central Intelligence Agency sent several of its top field operatives with counterterrorism experience to the country, according a former top agency official. At the same time, some of the most secretive Special Operations commandos have begun training Yemeni security forces in counterterrorism tactics, senior military officers said.

President Obama laid out his intentions on December 28th:

“We will continue to use every element of our national power to disrupt, to dismantle and defeat the violent extremists who threaten us, whether they are from Afghanistan or Pakistan, Yemen or Somalia, or anywhere where they are plotting attacks against the US homeland,” Mr Obama said.

As the center of operations for Al-Qaeda shifts to Yemen, we can expect more U.S. involvement in overt and covert operations to help the government there rid the scourge of terrorists in the strategic nation.

The Outlook

Yemen has all of the ingredients and hallmarks of a growing terrorist safe haven. An active rebellion against a weak central authority, a poor population base to draw in new recruits and access to some of the most critical shipping lanes in the world. The potential for another terrorist attack originating from Yemen is extremely high, and as the 2000 attack on the USS Cole and the Christmas airline plot have demonstrated, Americans are the prime target. While the Houthi movement and Al-Qaeda may have differing immediate objectives, their cooperation represents a clear and present danger to American interests. With our overstretched military engaged in multiple locations around the world fighting Muslim terrorists, the importance of regional engagement by Yemen’s Arab neighbors has never been more pressing. If the government falls, the safe haven will expand and become much like Afghanistan in the late ’90’s. That can not be allowed to happen.

Additional Resources

Qatar’s Peninsula Online
Qatar’s History (wikipedia)
Reuters Analysis
Washington Post’s Report of President Obama’s Statement
Center for American Progress

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“Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable.” – John F Kennedy

Escalation on a Holiday

As the American press continues its coverage of the attempted terrorist attack on the Detroit bound airliner on Christmas day, which is something we should certainly be concerned about given the connections to Yemen and the increasing terrorist activity springing from that war, Iran has reached a historical point and is suffering tremendous upheaval.

Two blogs are covering the ongoing violence extremely well. Juan Cole is providing excellent insight into the happenings and ramifications of the uprisings in his blog, which can be found here. Additionally, you can find more details about the clashes from Andrew Sullivan’s blog The Daily Dish.

Sunday marked the escalation of the popular unrest that has been on the upswing since the disputed elections in the summer. Juan Cole points out that the significance of the newest round of violence is in the extent of the demonstrations outside of Tehran:

Another remarkable dimension of Sunday’s events was the sheer number of cities where significant rallies and clashes occurred. Some of those allegedly killed are said to have fallen in Tabriz, a northwestern metropolis near Turkey. Even conservative cities such as Isfahan and Mashhad joined in. Shiraz, Ardabil, the list goes on. The attempt of some analysts to paint the disturbances as a shi-shi North Tehran thing has clearly foundered.

The most ominous sign of all for the regime is the reports of security men refusing orders to fire into the crowd.

Dissent and Fascism

One of the leaders of the opposition party is Mohammad Khatami, who gave a speech on Saturday condemning the Ayatollahs and President Ahmadinejad. The speech was broken up by the arrival of masked men at the service of the government. If you want to see what true fascism looks like, here is the video:



When Sunday came around, which was a holiday for Muslims called Ashura, the protests exploded, and the government forces used brutal and deadly force to try and shut it down. From the New York Times:

The decision by the authorities to use deadly force on the Ashura holiday infuriated many Iranians, and some said the violence appeared to galvanize more traditional religious people who have not been part of the protests so far. Historically, Iranian rulers have honored Ashura’s prohibition of violence, even during wartime … Protests and clashes also broke out in the cities of Isfahan, Mashhad, Shiraz, Arak, Tabriz, Najafabad, Babol, Ardebil and Orumieh, opposition Web sites said.

One of the more significant victims of the bloodletting was the nephew of the defeated opposition candidate from last summer’s election, Ali Mousavi. Mousavi’s body was removed by the Iranian junta forces to avoid any type of martyrdom/burial demonstrations. With varying casualty counts coming from both sides, it is hard to tell how deep the government crackdown has gone. But one thing is clear; the violence is not stopping and the pace of the uprising is increasing. Riots and attacks on banks and other institutions continued into Monday. Many more deaths are in Iran’s future before this either calms down or a new revolution takes place.

Moving Forward

As horrible as these scenes are, it is impossible to know what is really going on inside Iran. Is the government’s grip on power fading or are we seeing the end of a revolt that started last year? Only time will tell how it will work out, but evidence is pointing towards this episode being the start of an increased effort to change the fundamental governing structure in Iran. Some commentors are calling the events of Ashura the start of an Iranian Intifada (resistance):

This is a battle that Khamenei will find extremely difficult to win. In fact, if developments continue in their current form, they can result in significant changes to the structure of his regime, or more drastically, lead to its total demise.

His decision to allow the Basij to mount an attack on mourners at Ayatollah Montazeri’s funeral was one factor leading to the spread of opposition in rural areas, faster and more efficiently than any campaign the reformist camp could have orchestrated. Yes, members of the opposition tried to take advantage of the mayhem, but also many genuine mourners had come to pay homage to a Grand Ayatollah. To Ayatollah Khamenei’s forces, they were all the same. To allow attacks against the residents of a holy city where the seeds of the 1979 revolution were planted was not just dead wrong from a religious perspective, it was politically counterproductive as well.

The part in bold and italics (emphasis mine) may be a bit too optimistic. Unfortunately, the power is still not really on the peoples’ side.

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“بدبختها ها سرخود یاد ميگيرند، خوش بختها سر دیگران میبینند”
“Unfortunates learn from their own mistakes, and the lucky ones learn from others’ mistakes.” – Afghan Proverb

As referenced in last week’s article, the Afghanistan war is at an extremely critical stage, especially on the political front. This article intends to lay the framework of this debate by providing essential history, political analysis and observations on the current state of the war and its regional and global implications. It is not meant to imply a formal MOAA recommendation to the administration on the way forward, only to provide background on the road that lies behind and in front of us. While this will not be an article for fans of brevity, it will strive to be as comprehensive as possible.
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